Advances in ADAS are making roads safer than ever before. But how safe? How many crashes will today’s technology prevent and how many lives will be saved? Questions like these are not easy to answer as there’s a web of interconnected factors at play.
Facts & Figures
There are NHTSA numbers that show as safety systems have evolved, crash outcomes have improved. The average vehicle on the road in 2012 would have an estimated 56 percent lower fatality risk for its occupants than the average vehicle on the road in the late 1950s. “NHTSA estimates that vehicle safety developments helped raise the annual number of lives saved from 115 in 1960 to 27,621 in 2012,” they wrote, adding, “Cumulatively, these improved safety technologies saved over 600,000 lives between 1960 and 2012.” NHTSA and Euro NCAP have both said they expect continued improvement as drivers shift to newer model cars.
While concrete numbers may be impossible to calculate, it is possible to create a methodology that looks at the myriad of interconnected factors associated and make a prediction, which is exactly what Dr. Rebecca Naumann and her team at the North Carolina University (UNC) Injury Research Prevention Center did on behalf of the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety in a study published in August 2023.
Societal-Level Safety Benefits of ADAS
Doing this sort of research is common in the field of systems science, which is where Dr. Naumann’s expertise lies. This is one of many studies she has implemented to help us better understand the possibilities for automotive systems and Vision Zero approaches for preventing accidents and reducing deaths. The UNC team’s methodology allowed them to estimate how many motor vehicle crashes, injuries, and deaths ADAS technologies will likely prevent over the next 30 years – through to 2050 – while acknowledging and considering the many factors likely to influence them.
The researchers considered the impact of ADAS technologies available to consumers and assumed they would improve over time, the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety noted. “The study estimated future safety benefits of collision warning systems (such as forward collision warning), collision intervention systems (such as automatic emergency braking), adaptive cruise control, and dynamic driving assistance systems installed on cars, trucks, vans, minivans, and SUVs,” they wrote in a summary of the study results.
“Our study is the first that we’re aware of that has attempted to produce a realistic estimate of the future societal-level safety benefits of ADAS and partial vehicle automation,” said Brian Tefft, principal researcher for the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety, in a follow-on interview.
There have been other studies that attempt to quantify the potential safety benefits of specific ADAS and vehicle automation technologies in some way, Tefft explained. “For example, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety and the Highway Loss Data Institute have used their data to estimate the real-world effectiveness of some of these technologies (i.e., How much does a given technology reduce the risk of a crash for an individual vehicle with the technology versus without the technology?),” he said, adding, “A few studies have taken what I like to call a ‘magic wand’ approach, for example, trying to estimate how many of the crashes that happened in some prior year could have been prevented if every single vehicle had the technology.”
Road Safety Still a Concern
To estimate future safety benefits, the UNC researchers forecasted crashes, injuries, and deaths expected in future years before accounting for the effects of ADAS by assuming that future crashes would be similar to crashes that occurred in 2017 through 2019 plus an annual increase due to increasing vehicle travel. The researchers then estimated the probability that ADAS would prevent each future crash.
Based on Dr. Naumann’s projections, the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety estimated that available ADAS technologies could prevent approximately 37 million crashes, 14 million injuries, and nearly 250,000 deaths over the next 30 years. This would represent 16 percent of crashes and injuries and 22 percent of deaths that would otherwise occur on U.S. roads without these technologies. While the AAA study offers an optimistic outlook regarding crashes prevented and lives saved, they imparted a word of caution, noting that while ADAS may save 250,000 lives over the next 30 years, nearly 900,000 lives will be lost on our roads if current trends continue.
“The future for ADAS is bright, but it’s not a cure-all,” said Jake Nelson, AAA’s director of traffic safety advocacy. “While these technologies offer substantial safety benefits, we cannot engineer our way out of traffic injuries and deaths on U.S. roads.”
Consumer Education is Key
According to a AAA Foundation research report featuring Adaptive Cruise Control, drivers may initially not know how to use the feature properly. “This can lead to misuse or mistrust, especially in situations beyond the system’s capability (i.e., edge cases). But with time and exposure to various edge-case events, drivers may better understand and use ACC more effectively,” they wrote. AAA and its industry partners continue to urge automakers to adopt a standard naming convention versus the marketing-driven branded names of common ADAS systems.
While ADAS is forecast to save up to 250,000 lives in the next 30 years, there’s lots of work to be done to ensure consumers understand the capabilities and limitations of current and future ADAS features. All the while, road safety will continue to be the driver’s responsibility. Just because a car is capable of automatic emergency braking and forward collision warnings, doesn’t mean the technology will prevent every rear-end collision or be impervious to hitting a pedestrian or cyclist.
“The findings from this latest study on the AAA Foundation’s work in emerging technologies suggest that ADAS have the potential to transform road safety,” said Dr. David Yang, president and executive director of the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. “However, the full safety benefits of ADAS will not be realized unless they are fully understood by the consumer, used properly, and widely adopted.”
